Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-06 211.500417 256.040570 310.851100 384.389492 482.243190 6.106110e+02 7.963468e+02
2025-07-13 168.512991 223.646652 300.616262 420.168507 609.656315 9.150747e+02 1.485235e+03
2025-07-20 142.955219 202.520388 293.703324 452.326958 742.940894 1.306771e+03 2.667150e+03
2025-07-27 124.597025 185.500288 285.663567 476.755392 873.421100 1.787674e+03 4.667867e+03
2025-08-03 109.785354 169.936057 274.689093 490.407745 989.550300 2.340327e+03 7.966588e+03
2025-08-10 97.301606 155.366290 261.286969 493.788625 1085.157227 2.943022e+03 1.331543e+04
2025-08-17 86.002633 140.663234 244.058829 482.941364 1140.278093 3.495610e+03 2.110381e+04
2025-08-24 76.679921 127.965756 228.003542 469.583174 1182.626421 4.073517e+03 3.356762e+04
2025-08-31 68.932419 117.034158 213.379826 455.259457 1215.837577 4.682908e+03 5.423131e+04
2025-09-07 66.921008 116.789183 221.039273 500.101307 1477.959035 7.003026e+03 1.772731e+05
2025-09-14 62.318986 110.693543 214.664229 505.069604 1601.461723 8.869129e+03 4.929358e+05
2025-09-21 59.111020 106.996866 213.045121 523.448431 1799.094403 1.207999e+04 2.768088e+06
2025-09-28 54.692392 100.414493 203.995526 518.329245 1900.422302 1.507221e+04 3.115195e+07
2025-10-05 53.581534 100.792153 212.018704 571.750878 2362.131045 2.635130e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 52.133883 100.211517 217.549641 620.068368 2879.989590 4.729299e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 50.267025 98.411464 219.522837 657.029667 3401.688566 8.488187e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 47.983727 95.339048 217.430412 677.788855 3856.774409 1.473274e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 45.438773 91.337255 211.999504 682.941578 4206.349016 2.435141e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 42.539830 86.167539 202.350288 666.430985 4335.887733 3.485573e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 39.824749 81.187512 192.541517 646.165316 4409.115006 4.877671e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 37.333719 76.532198 183.056967 624.518329 4446.076885 6.754036e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 37.169691 77.677135 191.441585 692.572970 5772.823306 4.370453e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 35.635948 75.166477 187.977190 700.164283 6337.233571 1.870823e+07 NaN